Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f428052d179de2c1bb14eb829c26c6a199a75c936905011bb40f2aca26dff86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed No | 1c | 1,912$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 743.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 36c | 627.01$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.7 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 514.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 386.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 38c | 326.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 48c | 311.47$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 10c | 308.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 287.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 259$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 236.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 220.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 68c | 197.92$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 193.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 30c | 180.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 27c | 174.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 160.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 64c | 151.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 16c | 142$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 16c | 125.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 123.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 119.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 106.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 103.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 17c | 103.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 70c | 103$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 16c | 94.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 74c | 84.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 18c | 83.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 44c | 79.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 75.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 74.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 68.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 76c | 65.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 32c | 57.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 39c | 57.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 20c | 53.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 20c | 52.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 50c | 45.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 56c | 41.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 38.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 33.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 57c | 32.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 61c | 31.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 72c | 28.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 39c | 28.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 45c | 24.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 76c | 23.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 22.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 67c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.