Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf6ff73bdcac65dd5dd28091782631d2dd82aaf8165ff1a03b2c9c2b6d476254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 48c | 2,335$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.82 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 41c | 1,164$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.75 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 51c | 1,043$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.94 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Over | 59c | 393.22$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 286 | 38.1%109 W · 177 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Over | 52c | 274.47$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 293 | 38.6%113 W · 180 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 55c | 187.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked Over | 52c | 186.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 266 | 39.5%105 W · 161 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…b7a9backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 48.5%112 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…f9cdbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 50c | 166.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Over | 57c | 155.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 48c | 149.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…c02dbacked Over | 59c | 111.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…dd9abacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…f437backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…b713backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 62.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5423…8b45backed Under | 50c | 60.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 343 | 57.1%196 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a4…0182backed Over | 53c | 52.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…aebbbacked Under | 48c | 52.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…152dbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 843 | 60.1%507 W · 336 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…c143backed Under | 50c | 40.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 50c | 37.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Under | 50c | 36.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 411 | 56.7%233 W · 178 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Over | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 50c | 35.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…da1fbacked Over | 60c | 31.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Over | 52c | 30.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 47c | 30.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 793 | 45.4%360 W · 433 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Over | 52c | 24.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 210 | 54.8%115 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Over | 52c | 19.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Team Liquid won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Liquid won
- First Blood in Game 3?Karmine Corp won
- Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)Team Liquid won
- Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-InTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.