Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7bb902745d5f7e91e8b3b583512e00f2e5ce4931b63809fd62961920078ad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a62…fa34backed Wang | 29c | 417.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wang | 40c | 355.6$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa311…a4ebbacked Rybakina | 72c | 345.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wang | 24c | 191.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Wang | 33c | 151.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Wang | 32c | 151.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Rybakina | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a29dbacked Rybakina | 67c | 148.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Wang | 34c | 145.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Rybakina | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Rybakina | 71c | 112.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Wang | 33c | 107.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Rybakina | 36c | 104.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Wang | 29c | 100.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Wang | 38c | 99.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wang | 19c | 91.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Rybakina | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Rybakina | 51c | 72.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Rybakina | 68c | 69.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 482 | 42.5%205 W · 277 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Rybakina | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Wang | 31c | 43.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…544fbacked Rybakina | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Rybakina | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)this page
- Qatar Total Open: Xinyu Wang vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Set 1 Winner: Wang vs RybakinaRybakina won
- Wang vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Wang vs. Rybakina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Wang vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.