MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8d11138ba78ffd227e72c5ba9617cb55a06f37c13518a32f67fab4d6335215
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 2,114$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.93 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 1,506$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 1,460$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.96 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 954.54$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 923.31$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 725.56$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.22 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 616.51$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.65 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 561.96$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.79 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 428.48$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 8c | 425.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 60c | 420$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 246.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 200.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 192.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 165.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 122.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 108.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 56.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 56.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 51.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 47.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 43.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 41.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 37.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 30.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 29.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 29.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 28.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 26.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 18.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 17.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia PhilliesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.