Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf99a5c5519564526775ee2d839b8da3ad6dfc7debd6df0c216e0ab8ab3d9e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6304…e570backed Heroic | 55c | 13,420$7,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,081.45 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Aurora | 40c | 9,150$3,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,641.63 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Aurora | 44c | 6,407$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.04 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Aurora | 47c | 6,246$2,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 40c | 6,037$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.43 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6f16backed Aurora | 1c | 4,955$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Heroic | 60c | 4,630$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.39 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heroic | 69c | 4,241$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.54 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic | 56c | 4,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 33c | 3,337$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.68 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…63c8backed Heroic | 76c | 3,250$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Aurora | 24c | 3,240$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.55 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Aurora | 32c | 2,672$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Heroic | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.96 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic | 56c | 2,377$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.32 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Heroic | 72c | 1,972$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.19 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Heroic | 54c | 1,845$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.13 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…4b41backed Aurora | 45c | 1,667$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aurora | 43c | 1,281$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.07 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Heroic | 54c | 1,001$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.29 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Heroic | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed Heroic | 58c | 993$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Heroic | 59c | 790$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.21 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Aurora | 33c | 732.75$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.81 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 53c | 722.98$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.12 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Aurora | 32c | 649.76$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.59 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Heroic | 76c | 615.22$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Heroic | 59c | 527.11$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Aurora | 47c | 527.11$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.74 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Heroic | 68c | 445.63$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63f…8032backed Aurora | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 74c | 407.05$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Aurora | 25c | 349.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Aurora | 45c | 341.5$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…cf46backed Aurora | 29c | 331$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 55c | 301.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 45c | 299$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Heroic | 71c | 269.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Aurora | 45c | 255$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Heroic | 80c | 216.25$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Heroic | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Aurora | 42c | 189.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Aurora | 31c | 180.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Heroic | 57c | 166.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…99d6backed Aurora | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Heroic | 57c | 132$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…f2e8backed Heroic | 79c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Heroic | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…accdbacked Aurora | 48c | 102.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…c255backed Aurora | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Aurora | 19c | 96.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Aurora | 25c | 84.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heroic | 68c | 83.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Aurora | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…37ccbacked Aurora | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Heroic | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…64cdbacked Aurora | 44c | 56.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Aurora | 45c | 56.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Aurora | 45c | 50.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked Aurora | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Aurora | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Aurora | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Heroic | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Aurora | 41c | 39.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…a3d6backed Aurora | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4f…2460backed Heroic | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…3239backed Heroic | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Heroic | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Aurora | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.