MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf9e8be08a7903c385507d43459e9e2e965b0e0f600326b71120013741908b5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 66c | 40,830$26,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,854.31 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 40,624$13,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,691.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 277.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 160.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 84.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebd…7fd4backed Under | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 67.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 56.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 53c | 48.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…af18backed Over | 53c | 46.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Over | 45c | 40.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 33.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 47c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 27.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 19.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.