MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc22436dd60341944809f8ae56c38d03a45c5d88cb6ada9311b914c28731f3175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 51c | 8,135$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171.44 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 6,689$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,478.38 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 1,294$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.32 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 63c | 1,053$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,012$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.4 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 1,000$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.14 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 658.27$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.94 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Athletics | 48c | 653.15$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 64c | 579.37$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.59 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 508$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.12 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 63c | 365.91$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.86 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 52c | 326.26$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 285.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 61c | 284$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 269.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 247.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 247.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 55c | 224$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Athletics | 63c | 220.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.61 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Athletics | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Athletics | 63c | 179.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Athletics | 55c | 170$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 161.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 135$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 95.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 55c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 76.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Athletics | 64c | 68.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Athletics | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Athletics | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Athletics | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics | 65c | 54.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Athletics | 31c | 54.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Athletics | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Athletics | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Athletics | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 63c | 26.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 26.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Athletics | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.