Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafbac3d2c4d922b7a4287888e090c4bd500a116d5f638b94c01bb22c97fc1b5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 1c | 3,480$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 44c | 621.62$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 616.66$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.39 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed Yes | 16c | 564$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.13 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 434.59$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 372.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 311.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…32bfbacked No | 68c | 310.51$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 269$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 62c | 262.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 213.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 174.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 152.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 16c | 145.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 14c | 119.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 21c | 118.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 116.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 15c | 100.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 98.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 94.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 94.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 84.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 83.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 14c | 74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 42c | 73.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 29c | 73.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 71.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 58.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 47c | 53.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 40c | 48.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 48.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 57c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 40c | 37.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 52c | 35.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 80c | 34.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked No | 58c | 32.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 56c | 32.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 57c | 30.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 25.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.