Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b63e9b6d846942a475327c9b862d617371423f37f8f57a8f5c19b456afcbb97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,085$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 1,008$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 540.56$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.63 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 511.77$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 511$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.88 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 68c | 390$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…ab39backed Yes | 18c | 319.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 254$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 250.38$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 230.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 214.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 29c | 192.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 188.4$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 157.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 153.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa286…b3babacked Yes | 34c | 147.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 124.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 120.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 107.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 81.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 65.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 52.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 23c | 51.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 49.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 49.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 48.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 47.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 23c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 24c | 44.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 28c | 42.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 70c | 40.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 70c | 38.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 35.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 34.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 74c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…d99abacked No | 70c | 28.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 26.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed No | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.