Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc59dadc4e528ba64d17ac9c84f723cee45f870bdc32bd157f086aafe548266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 625.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 586.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 360.69$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 342.9$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 298.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 269$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 243.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 218.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 203.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 77c | 180$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 170.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 20c | 130.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 69c | 120.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…ab39backed Yes | 44c | 110.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 102.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 95.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 30c | 84.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 33c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 76.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 72.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 71.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 75c | 67.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 34c | 59.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 58.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 52.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 36c | 50.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 49.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 49.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 63c | 48.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 33c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 39.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 38c | 34.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 74c | 32.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 29.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 24.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 75c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.