Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafbff8058a377a9927139d254a30d04d73dcfd208eedcf20bffa47f53487e163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb41b…95b2backed No | 79c | 141,000$111,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,610 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe96e…c5e7backed Yes | 21c | 141,000$29,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,610 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…3bbcbacked Yes | 21c | 10,005$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5c…43b0backed Yes | 21c | 10,001$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba4…e39abacked No | 79c | 10,001$7,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…cd59backed Yes | 21c | 10,001$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…7b97backed No | 79c | 10,000$7,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…8d45backed No | 79c | 9,997$7,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…caaebacked No | 79c | 1,502$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…cdb2backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…b768backed Yes | 21c | 855$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…e9fabacked Yes | 21c | 855$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1d…dc5ebacked Yes | 21c | 855$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…b1b4backed No | 79c | 560$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes | 19c | 428.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 80c | 231.25$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 4c | 229.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a83…e78ebacked No | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…49cdbacked Yes | 22c | 161.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…b338backed Yes | 22c | 150.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…4e9bbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…e72dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…9568backed No | 79c | 99.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 79c | 86.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 80c | 82.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 21c | 79.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…16e0backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…43b5backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…396dbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…51d0backed No | 80c | 48.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 79c | 37.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Leicester win on 2025-04-07?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.