TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden Knightsof Lightning, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x574e…3ef1backed Golden Knights52c14,164$7,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,798.795843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Lightning48c11,000$5,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,26022842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Golden Knights52c3,800$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.8266951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning48c3,192$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.391,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Lightning53c3,019$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60027958.8%164 W · 115 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Lightning48c2,505$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.3837738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning47c1,915$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.81,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning49c1,874$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.1386649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2a…ca37backed Golden Knights53c1,872$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.9615261.8%94 W · 58 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning2c1,661$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.821,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Golden Knights53c1,553$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.7692848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Golden Knights57c1,500$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64524546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Golden Knights54c1,400$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64497651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Golden Knights52c1,015$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.097634.2%26 W · 50 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa928…9575backed Golden Knights53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.42853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning16c864.41$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.51,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fce…c2bebacked Golden Knights51c850.98$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5130…ec8ebacked Lightning50c832$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Lightning48c749.97$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5349351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning44c679.03$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.841,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Golden Knights52c669$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.1275155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning5c668.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.783,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b3…6159backed Golden Knights51c598$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.028870.5%62 W · 26 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+16.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2b3…fd35backed Golden Knights52c574.31$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e1c…5386backed Lightning48c416.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Lightning49c411.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013457.5%77 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Golden Knights52c384.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7815663.5%99 W · 57 L+17.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Golden Knights53c377.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ffd…e62cbacked Golden Knights52c357.1$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning46c305$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3572444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac90…1882backed Golden Knights53c303$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.411050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfc…b032backed Lightning47c299.94$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning8c298.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.891,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Lightning43c282.11$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3129748.8%145 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7054…6d9bbacked Golden Knights53c270.43$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed Lightning47c269.38$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.61955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning38c264.47$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4257238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Golden Knights50c250$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8651044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dea…8128backed Lightning49c244.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf868…ae1abacked Golden Knights53c236.26$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Lightning48c230$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.46144.3%27 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Lightning48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015456.5%87 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Lightning49c204.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012859.4%76 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Golden Knights52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9650857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Golden Knights52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe862…7d6bbacked Golden Knights52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.319955.6%55 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94e3…da40backed Lightning48c160$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57fc…b401backed Golden Knights53c158.47$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.481154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Golden Knights52c142.31$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3130946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…2b2fbacked Lightning48c137.5$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lightning47c133.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9672847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x818d…24ddbacked Lightning48c132.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.711435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5494…50f5backed Golden Knights53c118.11$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.511668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ee…b078backed Golden Knights52c115.38$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3814156.7%80 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c35…b583backed Lightning48c111.46$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning47c109.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1184051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Golden Knights51c109.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5728440.1%114 W · 170 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc07f…ad9dbacked Lightning48c109.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.49862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…0f8cbacked Lightning48c107.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.481650%8 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaccd…0597backed Lightning48c106.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.121353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x413c…9a07backed Lightning49c106$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.941233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58ac…4bdabacked Golden Knights52c106$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6002…19f5backed Golden Knights52c106$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f05…6bd8backed Golden Knights52c106$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.881060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbfb…c4e8backed Lightning49c106$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3296…8d88backed Lightning49c106$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c0…823bbacked Lightning48c104.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.381145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fee…5519backed Lightning48c103.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb0…823fbacked Golden Knights53c103.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…182bbacked Lightning48c102.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb19…e5a0backed Golden Knights53c101.74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb955…175ebacked Lightning48c101.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d8…134bbacked Golden Knights53c101.55$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.73650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…cc6dbacked Lightning48c100.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lightning48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4835154.1%190 W · 161 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lightning12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3391334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1161…d4eabacked Golden Knights53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d1…b694backed Lightning49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Lightning48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4881846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Golden Knights50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5027643.5%120 W · 156 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba2…cb54backed Golden Knights53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Golden Knights53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4750049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdc…79acbacked Lightning48c99.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf02a…67a7backed Golden Knights53c99.85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67be…561ebacked Lightning48c99.83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.92850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0755…b1fdbacked Lightning48c99.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.592070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+34.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x36c2…cb9ebacked Lightning48c98.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.12850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb2d…0ab6backed Golden Knights53c98.11$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.11862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd07d…8a68backed Golden Knights53c96.91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Golden Knights52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309f…54e5backed Golden Knights53c94.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…9759backed Golden Knights53c94.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6b…5209backed Lightning48c93.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb9…65ecbacked Golden Knights53c92.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.36825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ff…c60dbacked Lightning48c91.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.131844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Golden Knights51c90.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1132251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3f…63c7backed Golden Knights53c89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.831050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f6…a632backed Lightning48c87.73$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.111315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-67.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7865…45e8backed Golden Knights53c87.36$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.061250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc895…ff63backed Lightning48c85.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.151250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.