Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01061eb73f06ad7cef75f739eb22e0b471ec45fa07b2d8e536895a130f94ce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 34c | 568.78$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.25 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 422.94$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 24c | 299$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 293.27$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 270.42$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 36c | 260$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 225.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 169.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 18c | 109.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 73c | 106.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…14f4backed Yes | 25c | 100.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 98.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 96.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 70.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 70.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 68.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 78c | 64.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 60.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 58c | 53.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 63c | 46.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…a44dbacked Yes | 25c | 45.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 40.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 38.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 63c | 32.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 23.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…d031backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.