Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x643ebae8c242597805352b8c7732256bf36db0625e169f60ee73cf82d184fd7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 74c | 1,630$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.31 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,233$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 58c | 805.52$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.1 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 507.08$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 488.66$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 479.73$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 296$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 263.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 254$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 228.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 57c | 224.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 208$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 47c | 199.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 195.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 56c | 192$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 56c | 159$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 143.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 68c | 117.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 113.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…7a04backed Yes | 73c | 99.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 34c | 99.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 98.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…03efbacked No | 35c | 92.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 92.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 85.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 50c | 72.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 53c | 65.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 65.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 59.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 72c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 44c | 53.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 53.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 52c | 52.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 52c | 46.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 26c | 44.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 59c | 43.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed Yes | 48c | 39.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 40c | 37.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 33.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 62c | 33.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 32.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 30.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 40c | 27.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 63c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 50c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 52c | 23.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 57c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 50c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 56c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 61c | 17.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.