NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02738ae6dd53c40d95b5dff58f4d1864a5b9d2c8761107c374a02fc283e841a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Vikings, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vikings | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Commanders | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 54c | 272.43$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Vikings | 48c | 253$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Commanders | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Commanders | 56c | 200.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Vikings | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Commanders | 55c | 152$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Vikings | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Vikings | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Vikings | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Vikings | 44c | 63.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Commanders | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings | 44c | 42.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Commanders | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Vikings | 45c | 30.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Commanders | 55c | 30.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…5d1cbacked Vikings | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vikings | 47c | 25.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Vikings | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)this page
- Commanders vs. VikingsVikings won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 41.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.