NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbef551b624ee9aa388e85b618546dd810fe752cd6ab38ad468738f2c076d437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Vikings, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Vikings | 49c | 61,696$30,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,196.18 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 51c | 28,243$14,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,400.81 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Commanders | 50c | 10,185$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092.48 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Commanders | 50c | 9,775$4,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,888.14 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 51c | 4,940$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.91 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Commanders | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…706fbacked Commanders | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Commanders | 52c | 1,473$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.96 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Commanders | 54c | 1,342$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.68 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Vikings | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Commanders | 50c | 1,002$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.89 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings | 46c | 825.67$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.77 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Commanders | 50c | 485$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Commanders | 51c | 441.4$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Commanders | 54c | 416.67$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Vikings | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Commanders | 50c | 230.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…4a3cbacked Vikings | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Commanders | 53c | 181.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Vikings | 53c | 176$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Vikings | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Commanders | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Commanders | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Commanders | 54c | 60.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Commanders | 49c | 60.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…82e5backed Commanders | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Commanders | 50c | 31.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Commanders | 50c | 29.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…b954backed Vikings | 47c | 26.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Vikings | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)this page
- Commanders vs. VikingsVikings won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 41.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.