NFL · resolved market
Spread: Commanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5fe86749befefb8e30f30a4c5127aa668d0312dbe24787e547fed2e855552e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Commanders, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vikings | 51c | 4,504$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,214.74 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Commanders | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Commanders | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Vikings | 49c | 1,592$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.83 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Commanders | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Commanders | 49c | 1,232$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.03 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Vikings | 54c | 817.08$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.08 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Commanders | 50c | 650$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Commanders | 50c | 612.34$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.17 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Vikings | 51c | 607.35$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.6 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Commanders | 48c | 604.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.39 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Vikings | 52c | 544.67$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings | 52c | 459$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.35 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vikings | 54c | 416.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.71 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Vikings | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…6ae2backed Commanders | 49c | 312$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked Vikings | 51c | 312$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Commanders | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Commanders | 46c | 212$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Commanders | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Vikings | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Vikings | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Vikings | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Commanders | 49c | 185$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Commanders | 46c | 179$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Commanders | 47c | 166.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Commanders | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Commanders | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked Commanders | 50c | 98.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Commanders | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vikings | 50c | 53.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Vikings | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Vikings | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Vikings | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Commanders | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Commanders | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +12.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Vikings | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Commanders | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Commanders | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Commanders | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Commanders | 47c | 38.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Vikings | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Vikings | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Commanders | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…d3e6backed Vikings | 52c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Commanders | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Commanders | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vikings | 52c | 20.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Commanders | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Commanders | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)this page
- Commanders vs. VikingsVikings won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 41.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.