NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47483aa7b25a6ebc05cad5fdfcd9e0d429cc4b444a30bb21942a89b2609f3d9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 6,126$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.37 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 48c | 3,553$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.52 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 1,914$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.4 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Over | 51c | 749.61$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.3 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Over | 51c | 571$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.21 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 51c | 204.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 49c | 198.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 163.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over | 51c | 97.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 85.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked Over | 53c | 44.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 32.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 52c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under | 47c | 27.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 27.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5this page
- Commanders vs. VikingsVikings won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 37.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 41.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Commanders (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-1.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.