Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0550a81f15ab51dabee41fb013e2e3e35f6e1e1424e9c6afb607087d6abbeed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 3c | 17,291$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.26 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 6,749$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.08 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 6,360$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.44 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,544$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 4c | 2,154$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,932$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 5c | 1,428$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 2c | 1,340$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 3c | 1,166$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,132$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 1,090$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 7c | 791.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 5c | 762.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 6c | 710.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 673$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 4c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…9439backed Yes | 7c | 552.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 7c | 512.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 3c | 496.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 3c | 482.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 472$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Yes | 11c | 453.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0b5dbacked Yes | 9c | 378.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…a0e3backed Yes | 5c | 366.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…e974backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…888abacked Yes | 9c | 320.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 8c | 295.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 4c | 293.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…c73cbacked Yes | 9c | 273.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44e…e000backed Yes | 6c | 237.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…4d11backed Yes | 10c | 204.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 9c | 176.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 8c | 164.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 10c | 149.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 8c | 149$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 9c | 139.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 16c | 64.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.