Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3cd36108a8a3b96ea9f415e8907e2e10e06bb199e0cfe4e49483beb67680686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 9,267$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 1,508$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 54c | 1,180$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.9 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,053$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.68 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 888.29$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 811.33$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.42 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 31c | 698.15$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.71 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 697$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 682$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 64c | 640.52$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.3 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 624$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 5c | 611.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 45c | 461.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.61 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked Yes | 73c | 412.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 51c | 410.59$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 302.47$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 59c | 300.03$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 299.28$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 46c | 294.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 62c | 267.54$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.78 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 61c | 260.4$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 250.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 246.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.94 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 237.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed Yes | 47c | 212.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 208.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 40c | 203.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 54c | 193.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 183.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 60c | 169.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 59c | 161$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 151.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 141.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 71c | 139.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 33c | 130.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 130$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 45c | 129.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…e26bbacked Yes | 46c | 120.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 120.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 40c | 111.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f4…66b7backed Yes | 45c | 111.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 46c | 109.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 46c | 109.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 61c | 107.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 38c | 105.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 43c | 103.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 45c | 100.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 99.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 39c | 96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 95.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 50c | 87.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 55c | 87.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 38c | 84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 59c | 82.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 61c | 82.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 76.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 75.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 41c | 73.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 73.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 70.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 50c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 65.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 46c | 65.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 61c | 65.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 53c | 62.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 73c | 59.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 57.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 55.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 59c | 50.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 48c | 48.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 56c | 47.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 49c | 45.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 41.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 37.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 80c | 37.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 40c | 37.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.