Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b04e483a1c1bf4f0e875c9390d443e3a75a83885725a99cb17dbe492312cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,762$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 1,900$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,487$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,280$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 997.72$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 28c | 978.21$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.23 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 969.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 23c | 926.35$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 2c | 851.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 50c | 701.94$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 44c | 664.61$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 62c | 662.51$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.33 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 520.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 64c | 503.57$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.77 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 413.6$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 32c | 388.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 36c | 388.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 363.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 344.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 78c | 327.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 317.29$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 35c | 273.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 59c | 265.69$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 244.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 240$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 63c | 222.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 215.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 28c | 208.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 199.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 76c | 193.89$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 190.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…6fb4backed Yes | 27c | 188.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 74c | 178.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked Yes | 29c | 174.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 172.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…9167backed Yes | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 31c | 161.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 59c | 161$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 20c | 140.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 66c | 136.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 37c | 134.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 128.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 128$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed Yes | 40c | 127.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 24c | 125.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed Yes | 32c | 123.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f4…66b7backed Yes | 42c | 113.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 78c | 111.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 38c | 108.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 105.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 35c | 101.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 100.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 100.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 99.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917a…e42ebacked No | 66c | 98.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 61c | 98.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 96.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 21c | 94.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 18c | 91.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Yes | 24c | 82.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 43c | 80.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked No | 58c | 80.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 76.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0d…558cbacked Yes | 21c | 75.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 25c | 70.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked Yes | 39c | 69.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 64.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…a352backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 63c | 59.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 58.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…73e9backed Yes | 24c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 38c | 54.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…17bdbacked Yes | 37c | 53.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…5936backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 48.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 39c | 47.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…691abacked No | 59c | 46.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 61c | 45.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 44c | 45.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.