Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffcb9e324de36a33a4187c7bbbaedca203fb4359be9c4e575ff9992a28a628df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,146$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 19c | 1,143$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.02 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 771$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 27c | 750$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.77 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 470.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 12c | 417.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 23c | 389.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 358.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 358.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 22c | 347$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 301.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 292$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 286.52$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 13c | 282.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 17c | 276.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 268.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 259.89$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 30c | 244.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 241.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 56c | 240.29$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 52c | 240$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 38c | 229.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 55c | 177.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 160.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 64c | 156.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 19c | 146.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 142.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked Yes | 26c | 137.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 20c | 137$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 133.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 133.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 29c | 132.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed No | 76c | 131.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 128.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 46c | 120.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 18c | 113.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 36c | 102.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 50c | 101.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 100.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 30c | 100.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 77c | 95.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 27c | 87.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 24c | 83.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 77c | 81.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked Yes | 35c | 79.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 35c | 76.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 76.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 39c | 74.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 67c | 74.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 74.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Yes | 14c | 74.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 16c | 73.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 72.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…c58fbacked Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 22c | 71.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 33c | 70.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…5936backed No | 76c | 66.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd839…26ddbacked Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 43c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…abaebacked No | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 23c | 46.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…e974backed Yes | 68c | 44.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…fc6cbacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 35c | 42.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 55c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…680bbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…4d11backed Yes | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 38c | 32.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 52c | 31.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…d757backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 39c | 26.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 77c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.