UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08d52e5e20b10adfd5464e7f04cf7dbfbd37cfb4aaa48cd334f5eeea851750c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 59c | 536.58$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 62c | 390.77$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 60c | 293.25$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 60c | 212.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Yes | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 60c | 172.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Yes | 39c | 117.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…66e5backed Yes | 39c | 115.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked No | 62c | 99.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a7…1071backed Yes | 39c | 86.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…3c83backed Yes | 37c | 83.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…e682backed Yes | 39c | 77.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…f9afbacked Yes | 41c | 68.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe628…d459backed Yes | 44c | 67.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…ed56backed Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes | 74c | 54.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Yes | 40c | 53.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 38c | 52.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…394bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d2…ec2fbacked Yes | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…84a6backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c61…1d1abacked Yes | 38c | 34.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +233%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 62c | 32.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 37c | 28.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf242…680dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b41…d741backed No | 74c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +184.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…601ebacked Yes | 45c | 22.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Joshua Van won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.