UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5888a7f5fb509ca19ceaf177a4182656d9f820dfb95fe92b58238e25c956a2a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 65c | 6,365$4,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 35c | 2,805$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.64 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Yes | 35c | 2,754$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.79 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Yes | 48c | 1,006$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 51c | 949.75$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.59 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 61c | 599.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 40c | 525.48$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.59 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 39c | 498.33$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 36c | 378.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.01 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 36c | 367.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 62c | 342.56$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 38c | 246.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes | 39c | 176.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 38c | 157.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 62c | 155.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.45per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…e6a8backed No | 27c | 137.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 61c | 130.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Yes | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 59c | 84.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 58c | 63.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…1bb1backed No | 66c | 60.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 32cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 46c | 59.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 28c | 58.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53b1…724ebacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Yes | 34c | 54.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 76c | 52.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked No | 54c | 50.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Yes | 71c | 42.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…601ebacked No | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…0da7backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed No | 61c | 33.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…b54abacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked No | 60c | 30.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…0a58backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 54c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2874…9fd7backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…f97dbacked Yes | 75c | 20.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23f…196fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Joshua Van won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.