UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6415581fc26b6430ff98c05c73070e63bcc81d223d4f7a65d3d3e8ffea61991f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 35,166$15,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,300.69 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 56c | 33,351$18,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,511.31 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 56c | 1,378$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.17 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 1,197$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.35 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 57c | 719.7$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.47 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 58c | 625.65$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.71 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 573.04$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.07 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 55c | 562.57$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.16 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 44c | 533.93$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Under | 45c | 444.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 367.68$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.43 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5176…2ce0backed Under | 52c | 325.52$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…7c22backed Over | 55c | 262.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Under | 48c | 260.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…d3febacked Under | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 58c | 210.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e1…e05cbacked Under | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…359cbacked Under | 45c | 188.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 53c | 188.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 57c | 174.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 58c | 172.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Under | 49c | 159.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 157.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 57c | 132.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Over | 57c | 112.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…79eabacked Under | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 43c | 107.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Under | 47c | 107.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…9c8dbacked Over | 53c | 103$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…2ed4backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe628…d459backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…8267backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…bef4backed Over | 57c | 84.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 47c | 81.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 57c | 80.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 57c | 52.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 44c | 46.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Over | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Under | 46c | 41.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…ba40backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 50c | 29.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 53c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Over | 57c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…3846backed Over | 58c | 25.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 52c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Over | 58c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Over | 57c | 19.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Joshua Van won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.