UFC · resolved market
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6cf2eb7751a996bc72053e888d5d17f7e8b3d436b5934407c2818b6bc7f9d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes | 14c | 9,500$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…794fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,447$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Yes | 13c | 761.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…027bbacked Yes | 19c | 461.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…5090backed Yes | 19c | 373.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 78c | 362.07$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 12c | 268.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed Yes | 19c | 256.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Yes | 19c | 249.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4082…ce4bbacked Yes | 19c | 213.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…1a79backed Yes | 13c | 187.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…d3febacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 12c | 168.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…57eebacked Yes | 19c | 134.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…b3e7backed Yes | 17c | 114.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…1c06backed Yes | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…4f26backed Yes | 23c | 74.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…b1dbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…a083backed Yes | 23c | 44.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)Joshua Van won
- Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.