TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee5e…f97d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$420
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,252Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$564.19
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$136
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$35.25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.77
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$96
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.5
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.5
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$622Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+80.4%+$500.15
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$89
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.76
All 11 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$28.64
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+491.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+491.7%+$830.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+265.6%+$887.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astrosbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$12.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aurora make a roster change before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$425.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.