CS2 · resolved market
Will Aurora make a roster change before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f18997c6e8e795f483141b471d41dcc1128e3afa3a11bf424c4209820392d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked No | 63c | 1,641$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.57 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 52c | 1,556$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.27 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,472$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.95 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…9728backed Yes | 34c | 1,348$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.76 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,300$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.5 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…f97dbacked No | 54c | 928.99$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 16c | 660$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 148 | 20.3%30 W · 118 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Yes | 35c | 401.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7e…1a38backed No | 64c | 312.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 305$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10d…3797backed No | 65c | 292.69$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 239.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked No | 66c | 189.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 247 | 46.2%114 W · 133 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes | 74c | 136$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 238 | 42.4%101 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked No | 64c | 122.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8234…bfd0backed No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…e785backed Yes | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…e51bbacked No | 25c | 93.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…03a9backed Yes | 36c | 92.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…2860backed Yes | 18c | 92.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 90.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 63.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e74…6bdfbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6234…15c9backed Yes | 70c | 51.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…509cbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…431fbacked No | 62c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 47c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 56c | 23.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…9c51backed Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.