TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$404,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$441,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Sentinels40c51,777$20,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,710.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Liquid61c29,155$17,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,466.921,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Liquid66c19,592$12,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,668.6264155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Sentinels33c18,888$6,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,233.021,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x535c…96babacked Sentinels34c16,113$5,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,478.581330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Liquid67c13,756$9,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,511.551,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed5…7f92backed Sentinels36c11,367$4,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Sentinels36c10,027$3,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,595.6411643.1%50 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2266…138abacked Sentinels11c9,852$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.886432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Team Liquid64c9,039$5,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25467056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid73c8,851$6,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.631,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid64c8,021$5,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.9789347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid67c7,904$5,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.671,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x446f…b09fbacked Sentinels37c7,902$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,941.411861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sentinels16c7,818$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.822,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Liquid71c7,699$5,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.5691854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked Sentinels29c7,194$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Team Liquid60c6,506$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.4151044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked Team Liquid72c6,145$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.3419745.2%89 W · 108 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Sentinels36c5,750$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.3370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid70c5,713$4,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.5485442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Team Liquid67c5,622$3,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.1331036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Sentinels20c5,429$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.7725952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Sentinels34c5,411$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.4648149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid60c5,270$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.162,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Sentinels37c5,206$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.4648448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed Sentinels37c4,811$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.074431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Sentinels15c3,752$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.7715821.5%34 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Team Liquid60c3,699$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.5567250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Team Liquid60c3,333$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.235431.1%110 W · 244 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Team Liquid70c3,196$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.6359450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked Team Liquid65c2,937$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.959129.7%27 W · 64 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Sentinels35c2,902$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.7813135.1%46 W · 85 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Sentinels30c2,900$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87064749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Sentinels34c2,650$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9051,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Sentinels15c2,458$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36535346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sentinels26c2,384$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.263,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Sentinels23c2,357$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.2858420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Liquid68c2,351$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.3455955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Liquid78c2,331$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.4666845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Sentinels34c2,162$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.831,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sentinels20c2,112$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.781,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Team Liquid73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54046263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Team Liquid66c1,949$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.2799338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Liquid66c1,892$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.9542941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Sentinels33c1,770$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.2435243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2185…e3e0backed Sentinels31c1,727$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sentinels36c1,683$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.811,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Sentinels33c1,647$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6756432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Team Liquid60c1,627$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.6728638.1%109 W · 177 L-14.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Sentinels39c1,599$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.61,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Team Liquid65c1,539$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.552,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Sentinels37c1,522$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.017263.9%46 W · 26 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Liquid73c1,491$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.4330357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid70c1,486$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.2574250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Sentinels32c1,474$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.8128827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Sentinels28c1,469$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.421,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Sentinels33c1,466$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.192,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid63c1,443$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.473,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Sentinels34c1,412$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.25757.9%33 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Sentinels17c1,337$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.914035.7%50 W · 90 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Team Liquid74c1,337$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.3925853.5%138 W · 120 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Team Liquid67c1,322$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.131,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Sentinels34c1,250$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.8496250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Team Liquid73c1,180$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8650569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3464…8112backed Team Liquid65c1,156$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.532650%13 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid74c1,128$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.361,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Sentinels8c1,126$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5619731%61 W · 136 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Liquid64c1,087$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.3260347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Team Liquid69c1,002$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.546861.8%42 W · 26 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Sentinels35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35057945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Sentinels2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2094144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Sentinels34c999.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3405549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Sentinels10c999.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb08…b630backed Team Liquid60c976$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.417032.9%56 W · 114 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Sentinels34c960.37$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.9783460.8%507 W · 327 L+44.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Sentinels35c947.36$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.245937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Sentinels41c941.07$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8454246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Sentinels35c877.61$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0779151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Team Liquid60c861.66$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.6652848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid70c859.11$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.472,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc147…6700backed Sentinels34c852.94$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed Sentinels26c816.9$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.2942847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ddd…1fc8backed Team Liquid73c806.82$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.999259.8%55 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Sentinels3c801.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.552,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa065…b825backed Sentinels6c784.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.81944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed Sentinels37c769.7$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.8414348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed Team Liquid65c764.09$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.435554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Sentinels7c750.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.561487.4%11 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Sentinels22c743.05$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.411532.2%37 W · 78 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Sentinels35c742.3$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.819545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Team Liquid67c731.49$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.3911959.7%71 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Sentinels2c700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Sentinels34c700$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2381,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Sentinels36c696$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.568458.3%49 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Team Liquid75c692.44$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1444851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4967…4292backed Sentinels30c689.77$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1330231.1%94 W · 208 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf376…516cbacked Sentinels14c689.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.993268.8%22 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Liquid64c677.31$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8377949.9%389 W · 390 L+12.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Sentinels5c664.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.381140%0 W · 114 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.