Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x286b136b0985fd4c479053f837a5be8c6bfd6363064dbb210bc154cba7370ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sentinelsof Team Liquid, Sentinels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Sentinels | 64c | 4,100$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.98 | 704 | 56.4%397 W · 307 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Team Liquid | 39c | 1,226$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.36 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 1,211$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.58 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 962.46$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.48 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Team Liquid | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 564 | 32.1%181 W · 383 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Sentinels | 62c | 248.56$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 257 | 64.2%165 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Team Liquid | 41c | 237.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 537 | 53.6%288 W · 249 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Team Liquid | 41c | 237.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5973backed Team Liquid | 38c | 220.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 557 | 44%245 W · 312 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sentinels | 40c | 207.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5393…384dbacked Team Liquid | 69c | 169.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Team Liquid | 37c | 141.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 135.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Team Liquid | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Sentinels | 38c | 105.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 147 | 35.4%52 W · 95 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Sentinels | 61c | 94.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Team Liquid | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Team Liquid | 62c | 56.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sentinels | 36c | 55.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3e…5d9dbacked Team Liquid | 39c | 54.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 480 | 42.3%203 W · 277 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Sentinels | 60c | 52.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sentinels | 61c | 51.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…eba7backed Sentinels | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Team Liquid | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sentinels | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Sentinels | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Team Liquid | 38c | 36.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Team Liquid | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +16.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Liquid | 59c | 26.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…1da3backed Sentinels | 60c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Team Liquid | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Sentinels | 60c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Liquid | 72c | 16.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 WinnerSentinels won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.