TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Liquid67c63,605$42,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,989.4955955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Sentinels32c36,982$11,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,863.281,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Team Liquid72c9,511$6,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.7567250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sentinels32c7,723$2,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,485.591,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Sentinels33c7,297$2,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.1143442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Team Liquid68c7,062$4,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.7659750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sentinels26c6,299$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.93,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8d…a7a8backed Sentinels33c5,900$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9474431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Team Liquid64c4,927$3,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.6227957.7%161 W · 118 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Sentinels33c4,868$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.5824445.1%110 W · 134 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Sentinels29c4,138$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.034146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Liquid73c4,019$2,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.151,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Liquid70c3,500$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05092254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Sentinels28c3,454$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.31,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f2…3bc2backed Team Liquid66c3,255$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.7253147.5%252 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Sentinels31c2,936$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.651,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Liquid71c2,925$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.3690348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Sentinels37c2,596$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.081,23249.4%609 W · 623 L+13.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Sentinels31c2,304$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72042941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Sentinels38c2,303$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.2196350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Sentinels33c2,036$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.8686144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Sentinels8c1,996$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5314035.7%50 W · 90 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Sentinels31c1,987$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.1185942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Sentinels33c1,947$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.6316942%71 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Sentinels32c1,320$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.0156432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Liquid71c1,300$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.4725952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked Sentinels38c1,267$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.412642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Sentinels33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33048548.7%236 W · 249 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Sentinels28c996.86$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.121,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Team Liquid73c993.64$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.281,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sentinels33c974.64$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.432,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Team Liquid73c834.62$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1151160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Sentinels31c828.1$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2152848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Sentinels15c812.04$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.771,29926.6%345 W · 954 L+65.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels27c743.71$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.82,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Sentinels32c712.7$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0374250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid68c650.13$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.042,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Sentinels30c647.56$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5554246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb2…89f8backed Team Liquid73c608.29$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.962147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Sentinels33c599.88$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9660847.9%291 W · 317 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ddd…1fc8backed Team Liquid74c596.36$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.339259.8%55 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Team Liquid67c588.12$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0895951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Team Liquid68c576.94$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6241060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Team Liquid75c530.78$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5262158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Liquid75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12530357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Team Liquid73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351,18444.4%526 W · 658 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed Sentinels26c487.36$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7140435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x709c…ce30backed Sentinels27c457$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5210034%34 W · 66 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Team Liquid73c404.15$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0150051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid80c383.61$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4889746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Sentinels32c365.91$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4533237.7%125 W · 207 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Sentinels39c362.18$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.256543.1%28 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Sentinels39c352.38$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4335243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Team Liquid71c350$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.51,01349.1%497 W · 516 L+29.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Sentinels34c321.04$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1123240.5%94 W · 138 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Sentinels31c313.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8237641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Sentinels33c291.71$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.177263.9%46 W · 26 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Sentinels34c279$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3258420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked Team Liquid71c276.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4883149.8%414 W · 417 L+2.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Team Liquid73c268.65$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.861,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Sentinels21c262.71$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.561,73029.5%510 W · 1,220 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Sentinels27c249.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Sentinels40c243.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.381,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Sentinels30c240.9$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8836647.3%173 W · 193 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c55…ad47backed Sentinels38c228.03$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.654738.3%18 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Sentinels29c225.48$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4433042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Sentinels30c205.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1682836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d0…f87ebacked Sentinels24c203.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7940340.9%165 W · 238 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed85…c85abacked Team Liquid71c199.12$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4112067.5%81 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Sentinels33c181.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7423443.2%101 W · 133 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Sentinels11c178.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.831,47643.6%643 W · 833 L-31.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Liquid72c162.22$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5257546.3%266 W · 309 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Team Liquid69c149.87$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8464451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Liquid71c148.49$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0699756.6%564 W · 433 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe807…4dc8backed Team Liquid69c145.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9728351.6%146 W · 137 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Team Liquid71c143.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1679864.3%513 W · 285 L+32.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Sentinels22c141.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.951,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked Team Liquid75c131.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8341553.3%221 W · 194 L+1.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Team Liquid71c127.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9279151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Sentinels27c122.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1970744.1%312 W · 395 L-22.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sentinels25c117.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.321,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Team Liquid75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2538659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Team Liquid61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3939056.4%220 W · 170 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sentinels21c99.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.952,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Team Liquid73c98.91$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7138756.6%219 W · 168 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Sentinels21c98.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5147630.7%146 W · 330 L-13.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Sentinels34c98.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3723047%108 W · 122 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe727…f6e1backed Sentinels14c95.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.374447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Sentinels22c91.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.861,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Team Liquid73c88.54$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.911,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6484…7102backed Sentinels16c87.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Sentinels33c86.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9523624.6%58 W · 178 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Team Liquid74c81.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1848951.5%252 W · 237 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e8…5289backed Team Liquid63c74.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.615759.2%93 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56af…7527backed Sentinels28c68.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.145160.8%31 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Sentinels29c68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7233737.7%127 W · 210 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x217a…5dfabacked Team Liquid76c67.81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2947557.7%274 W · 201 L-27.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7e2…8fb6backed Sentinels29c67.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4426236.6%96 W · 166 L+24.6wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+27.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc995…5e2ebacked Team Liquid74c66.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2913060.8%79 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Liquid72c63.69$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9319150.8%97 W · 94 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.