TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$447,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$488,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed New York Yankees59c48,770$28,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,995.755053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros35c45,231$15,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,825.1910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros44c41,404$18,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,290.832,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Yankees59c23,991$14,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,800.231,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked New York Yankees74c23,198$17,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,056.7412754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f0…2768backed Houston Astros43c21,588$9,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,193.0414943.6%65 W · 84 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed New York Yankees52c18,669$9,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,910.637132.4%23 W · 48 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked New York Yankees59c17,207$10,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,054.693956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bbd…c1fabacked Houston Astros1c16,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros45c14,816$6,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,604.3211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed New York Yankees56c13,947$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,146.9120350.2%102 W · 101 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Yankees59c11,817$6,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,847.621,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed New York Yankees69c10,215$7,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,162.9343554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Houston Astros41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10012457.3%71 W · 53 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed New York Yankees59c9,754$5,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.142937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked New York Yankees50c9,616$4,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,807.9426056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros35c9,609$3,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,401.171,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Houston Astros42c6,894$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.637953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros47c6,754$3,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,174.936,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros41c6,613$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.275,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Houston Astros40c5,683$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.9148850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Houston Astros42c5,452$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.646845.6%31 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros41c5,101$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.223,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x720e…17b0backed New York Yankees76c4,916$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.956467.2%43 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Houston Astros41c4,878$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.981,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Houston Astros43c4,043$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.4328944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked New York Yankees57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.934454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros23c3,258$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.8212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked New York Yankees63c2,863$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.611,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Houston Astros39c2,594$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.841,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Houston Astros42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.984252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros35c2,315$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.098,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Yankees58c2,267$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.541,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed New York Yankees51c2,142$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.9731039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked New York Yankees58c2,040$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.7175248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Houston Astros1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.78762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Houston Astros4c1,758$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6733515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed New York Yankees62c1,748$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.64475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros33c1,700$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.919,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Houston Astros28c1,479$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.3730140.5%122 W · 179 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed New York Yankees55c1,382$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.1125240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros48c1,357$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.775,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Houston Astros46c1,268$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.141,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Houston Astros47c1,222$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.1655541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed New York Yankees59c1,101$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4313655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d4…a050backed New York Yankees57c1,062$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed New York Yankees57c1,020$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.64951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Houston Astros35c1,016$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.710930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked New York Yankees57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43025550.2%128 W · 127 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Houston Astros29c990.41$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.2214938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Houston Astros41c944$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.0417452.9%92 W · 82 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees73c877.51$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.585,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed New York Yankees51c873.54$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.0380159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed New York Yankees57c854.56$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.465050%25 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees51c852.21$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.184,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked New York Yankees73c847.21$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8168769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed New York Yankees58c767.45$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.75054%27 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Houston Astros6c736.67$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9884140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed New York Yankees59c721.8$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9420851.9%108 W · 100 L+0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272b…0a6ebacked New York Yankees58c672.28$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.363360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed New York Yankees76c625.99$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8847589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xcb2b…e828backed Houston Astros43c539.05$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.7916844%74 W · 94 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees57c534.95$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.986,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees47c511.14$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.91,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd9…ea45backed Houston Astros41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20514451.4%74 W · 70 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees57c499$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.482,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b07…98a7backed New York Yankees58c487.4$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.712842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Houston Astros38c483.04$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1439640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Houston Astros50c481.48$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7453261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed New York Yankees53c455.59$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5922948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Houston Astros41c453.56$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9616845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros43c453.34$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.881,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49bc…5899backed New York Yankees56c443.34$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.07785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick46cpaid+95%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed New York Yankees57c440.17$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.3412339%48 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa945…110fbacked Houston Astros46c438.61$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed New York Yankees57c426.35$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.270735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked New York Yankees46c420.7$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.1811942.9%51 W · 68 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed New York Yankees58c419.16$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0522548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Houston Astros4c412$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4814340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Houston Astros51c408.95$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5837143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Houston Astros43c399.98$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9969351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed New York Yankees50c392.37$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.421,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…7cbebacked Houston Astros31c392.04$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed New York Yankees50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1944259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed New York Yankees51c380.48$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.438353%44 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd3…fed4backed New York Yankees58c378.16$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.835959.3%35 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros43c370.6$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3650647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros47c343.94$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.311,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Houston Astros43c336.91$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8743247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Houston Astros58c333.33$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3950860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Houston Astros37c332.08$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.337941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed New York Yankees59c330.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5634045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a6…25bcbacked Houston Astros43c325.72$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.06520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros50c319.54$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.454,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44d…edf1backed Houston Astros46c316.26$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.132055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed New York Yankees59c299.23$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6932157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2090…904cbacked New York Yankees74c296.75$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked New York Yankees57c292.26$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6721149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d58…a268backed New York Yankees51c285.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0570…5200backed Houston Astros47c273.17$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.219152.7%48 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.