MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b2dc3c5e9490a941bf41c94c17311c5d88cebf768aa97b98406495b7a134a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 48c | 4,236$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 2,127$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 52c | 1,852$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.84 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 52c | 1,499$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.57 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed New York Yankees | 48c | 1,047$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.55 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 768.73$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.43 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 520$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked New York Yankees | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed New York Yankees | 29c | 401.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.56 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 58c | 394.24$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros | 52c | 341.28$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed New York Yankees | 48c | 302.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked New York Yankees | 71c | 302.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 242$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed New York Yankees | 40c | 220$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed New York Yankees | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed New York Yankees | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Houston Astros | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed New York Yankees | 48c | 161.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Houston Astros | 53c | 137.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Houston Astros | 73c | 132.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Houston Astros | 53c | 122.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed New York Yankees | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Houston Astros | 22c | 95.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 53c | 81.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed New York Yankees | 51c | 73.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed New York Yankees | 48c | 66.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed New York Yankees | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked New York Yankees | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed New York Yankees | 42c | 52.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros | 53c | 49.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 48c | 49.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Houston Astros | 22c | 45.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…98a7backed New York Yankees | 78c | 44.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed New York Yankees | 79c | 43.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed New York Yankees | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…205bbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed New York Yankees | 48c | 33.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 29.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 25.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Houston Astros | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 21.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Houston Astros | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Houston AstrosNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.