MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0839d9fdf60a1beaa50076fca9ccc214476508ee3b2fa2b4dc84e7b6a8dfccd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x861a…1f15backed Under | 52c | 2,541$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.31 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 2c | 2,375$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 48c | 2,024$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.68 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 31c | 1,699$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.51 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 70c | 1,099$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 3c | 874.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 48c | 776.63$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.85 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 690.08$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 632.41$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 615.94$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 4c | 579.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 498.03$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.87 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 28c | 478.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.45 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 465.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.64 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 67c | 432$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 360$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 338.23$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 46c | 299.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 65c | 290.01$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 69c | 262.07$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.83 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 236.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 230.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 63c | 193.53$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 79c | 177.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 15c | 158.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 46c | 140.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 137.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 68c | 133$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 56c | 130.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 49c | 130.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Under | 53c | 119.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 55c | 108.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 97.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 55c | 90.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Under | 18c | 87.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 75.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 64.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 51c | 58.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 51.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 63c | 47.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 55c | 46.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…414ebacked Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…8bc4backed Under | 65c | 42.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…2c98backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 40c | 31.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 45c | 28.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 47c | 28.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 65c | 26.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 48c | 25.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Under | 55c | 23.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 20.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…f368backed Under | 76c | 17.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Houston AstrosNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.