MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0cde67d12515faa6934aec8639f6055430f39bc60fc40f47dce8535da54ebd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 1,504$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Under | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 1,375$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 38c | 1,319$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.22 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed Under | 68c | 661.84$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 63c | 307.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 62c | 294.53$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 32c | 211.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 37c | 210.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 38c | 183$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Over | 34c | 173.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 145.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 42 | 76.2%32 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 139.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 94.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 78.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 34c | 64.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 38c | 48.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.