MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x957820b48e1036c0de5618a462748e7be5dc707315b757ff578758d9b8d0bfae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 1,136$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.32 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 1,040$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.59 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 1,024$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.16 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 620.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 557.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.76 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 532.5$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 495.91$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 421.71$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.36 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 10c | 354.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 19c | 207.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 204.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 171.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 171.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 169$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 156$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 146$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 131.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed Atlanta Braves | 52c | 96.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 95.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 93.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 72.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 63.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 51.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Atlanta Braves | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 24.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.