MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb4328f323fb32a2fc22317b8ab0afeecc405711b6fe8b1254bdaf9705a44d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 52c | 961.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.63 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 59c | 731.1$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.67 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 51c | 688.29$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 508.78$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 481.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 23c | 421$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 404$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 21c | 401.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 78c | 332.92$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 23c | 317$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 297.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 77c | 258.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…49f7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 154.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 137$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 40c | 130.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 116$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 77c | 86.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 79c | 81.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 69c | 77.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 80c | 69.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 41c | 59.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 50c | 42.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Over | 53c | 35.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 72c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 75c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.