Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d5a5d55c37b3539be9a3ed46c2472a48d118f97a50e61236964c56ad8b1ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 22c | 19,950$4,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,388.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 13,763$10,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.66 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 2,922$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.15 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 2,361$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.98 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…f319backed Yes | 10c | 2,242$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…8e9bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,004$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed No | 78c | 1,923$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.08 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,020$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 78c | 1,014$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…bd82backed Yes | 5c | 846$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 22c | 729.29$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 22c | 600.05$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 558.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…5857backed Yes | 24c | 536.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 531$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…cc69backed Yes | 2c | 526.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 24c | 429.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…3670backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…51b9backed No | 78c | 341.44$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…4b50backed Yes | 19c | 332.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 22c | 233.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 78c | 206.89$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 13c | 193.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 7c | 191.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 131$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…b3adbacked No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 78c | 125.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b54…b910backed Yes | 23c | 118$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 20c | 102.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 23c | 84.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…3773backed Yes | 24c | 83.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 78c | 81.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 79c | 60.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…00d1backed No | 78c | 51.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99c…6ec3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…30cabacked Yes | 24c | 46.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed Yes | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…ad6cbacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 80c | 36.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…06a9backed No | 78c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 80c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…0451backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed No | 78c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…0ab0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-18?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Samsunspor end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.