Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Samsunspor end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc5985dd575aca4df587d54a526cb84a8446196f98361df4cc7a32886b308b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 24c | 20,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 12,879$9,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,027.78 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 2,047$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.92 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f89…5fb5backed Yes | 26c | 1,835$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 1,539$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.04 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 76c | 1,200$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes | 20c | 570$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 76c | 515$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…8e9bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 32c | 210$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 25c | 208$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 68c | 182$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 75c | 162.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 160.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 23c | 149.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 144.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 18c | 125.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 110.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba8…c31fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +200%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…e241backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 23c | 92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 76c | 91.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 26c | 77.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 70.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 54.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…bd82backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 76c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 70c | 23.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Samsunspor end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
- Will Samsunspor win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.