Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1019db4cfa3806139d08cd8a15b8faa85fcb05aaab2d663f0c42a3190f9b326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 25c | 9,874$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.64 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed No | 79c | 7,000$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 6,307$4,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.04 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…97cfbacked Yes | 22c | 3,884$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 3,096$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 80c | 2,271$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.51 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 63c | 1,798$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.23 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 21c | 1,291$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.09 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 24c | 1,272$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 1,050$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.97 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 909$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 21c | 605.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…8366backed Yes | 24c | 420.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 24c | 411.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 403.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…6bbbbacked Yes | 43c | 397$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 64c | 314$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed No | 78c | 255.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…71dabacked No | 61c | 247.07$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed No | 79c | 245.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 41c | 217.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 77c | 181.74$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed No | 63c | 179.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 26c | 154.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 31c | 147.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 22c | 145.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 22c | 138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…2183backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -7.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 20c | 85.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…a9f3backed No | 80c | 85.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 76c | 75.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 68c | 44.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 64c | 38.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 64c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked No | 79c | 32.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…5ddfbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a29…5067backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…2077backed No | 79c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…c452backed No | 63c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.