TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,140

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2129…4222backed No49c5,756$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,964.0519153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked No43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8502536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No42c4,124$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.012222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No42c3,735$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.345954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes58c3,448$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Yes59c3,390$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed No42c2,850$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.942661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Yes58c2,413$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No57c2,412$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.242646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes58c2,246$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No45c2,038$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.853,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes42c1,677$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes58c1,621$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.281060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No44c1,500$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.112651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No41c1,406$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.749552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No53c1,377$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.262,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.364042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No51c955$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.856010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No45c919.99$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.596543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes58c900$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5224963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9a7…d725backed Yes57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes56c849.99$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4763221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70af…26fdbacked Yes59c847.84$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes40c829.61$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.8414846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked No41c786.39$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.962365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed No42c776.99$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.6615847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes53c720.71$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.981323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes58c716$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee4…9fd4backed Yes59c677.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed No46c606.52$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes58c600$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.084544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked No41c599.96$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.983243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Yes48c532.67$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.685347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1319…cf06backed Yes57c510$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes43c420$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.622332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4234…6b87backed Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003464.7%22 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No55c309.74$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.119053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No73c303.45$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-68.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb5a…f4c1backed No42c301.98$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17411036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yes23c300$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked Yes59c293.42$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1724369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes56c269.34$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8323046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked No41c257.88$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.152454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes58c242.69$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.762240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No59c213.96$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8651136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d62…057bbacked Yes58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Yes52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b1a…6258backed Yes52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No42c180$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f2…0bc9backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Yes58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes58c172.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes59c167.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.674557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked No50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No42c141.42$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0134342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Yes40c136$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.883330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x00af…4e8bbacked Yes58c130$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Yes58c129.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a03…47c1backed Yes58c120.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695a…d3d6backed Yes58c120.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xad28…770cbacked Yes38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.63551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x569d…5db5backed Yes46c119.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes58c116.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.519173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.283151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe505…fadbbacked Yes26c114.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes58c110$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.86459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No43c107.58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.328250%41 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc487…dc86backed Yes56c104.75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x416f…18d8backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x237f…d0edbacked No42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e09…14cdbacked Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes41c87.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No44c85.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.82759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes47c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.219846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb75…4761backed Yes59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd724…b805backed Yes40c83.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-80.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfed6…a111backed Yes57c80.58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.93580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Yes56c79.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.44744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Yes48c77.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+58.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7272…7135backed Yes45c75.56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed Yes56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-66.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ad…83fcbacked Yes54c73.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf144…f2bbbacked No43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No75c65.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6310347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No51c65.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3223745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No42c63.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.59053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c80…6f38backed Yes59c62.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.092231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes58c60.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes34c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…113fbacked Yes57c53.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.