Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d88d365de7feb5e26ab5247a6361fbb73f79d1b77ae58457f4731feb67e2eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 70c | 7,159$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 27c | 6,673$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 41c | 4,374$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.2 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 2,181$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 29c | 1,111$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.89 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 21c | 952.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.37 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 782.73$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.53 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 78c | 627.73$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.63 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…8366backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 67c | 462$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 52c | 344$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 72c | 233$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…692cbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 22c | 130$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 52c | 128.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5a2bbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 25c | 78.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…b59bbacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked No | 28c | 52.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 68c | 50.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…3430backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…984abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 18.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 59c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-04?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.