Us Politics · resolved market
Hunter Biden sentenced to prison before election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb11c064ef5aebbb887ad14ae1e5555eb5f997dd2182907d8999f27ff5ae04fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 6c | 8,199$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 4c | 2,984$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 29c | 2,725$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +106%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…7d13backed Yes | 3c | 2,128$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,116$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 1,575$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 1,137$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 5c | 973.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 780$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…515ebacked No | 73c | 700$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 77c | 661.61$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.09 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 600.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Yes | 4c | 580$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +107%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 18c | 488$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 74c | 477$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 76c | 394.21$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…8553backed Yes | 22c | 350$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 333$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4724…4df1backed Yes | 6c | 325.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked No | 75c | 260$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 30c | 183.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…f025backed No | 79c | 143.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 78c | 90.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…4adfbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed Yes | 27c | 56.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.