Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb12751a993dd0edbaee4c46bcb1dfc5598c48f75ffae907958f062265ba1c5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 220$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 155.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 149$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 141.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 109.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 90.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 69c | 71.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 35c | 66.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 54.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 53.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 40c | 51.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 50.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 50.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 49.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 33c | 48.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 45.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 42.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 33c | 38.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 36.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 34.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 34.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 29.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 63c | 27.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.