Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Rune Eaters (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14fbfe37c1447d66b1614aaa34a3467525b613c88e2b9cdcfef12e606609b58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Rune Eaters | 9c | 7,910$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.81 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Rune Eaters | 18c | 2,269$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.46 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Rune Eaters | 14c | 2,256$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.77 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed Rune Eaters | 16c | 1,266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Rune Eaters | 7c | 1,250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Rune Eaters | 7c | 1,049$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Rune Eaters | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Rune Eaters | 31c | 992.56$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.12 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Rune Eaters | 9c | 780$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Falcons | 62c | 675.92$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 79c | 634.42$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9a…89a5backed Rune Eaters | 19c | 528.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Rune Eaters | 21c | 514.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.39 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Rune Eaters | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…ce32backed Rune Eaters | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Rune Eaters | 16c | 240$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rune Eaters | 15c | 237.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Rune Eaters | 19c | 219.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…cec3backed Rune Eaters | 12c | 217.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Rune Eaters | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons | 77c | 145.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Rune Eaters | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…3f07backed Rune Eaters | 18c | 111.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Rune Eaters | 18c | 100.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Rune Eaters | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…bddfbacked Rune Eaters | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Rune Eaters | 17c | 89.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa194…d4bebacked Rune Eaters | 25c | 81.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked Rune Eaters | 18c | 79.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 243 | 43.6%106 W · 137 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…19abbacked Rune Eaters | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 3.5%4 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Rune Eaters | 24c | 68.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Rune Eaters | 21c | 67.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…3833backed Team Falcons | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Falcons | 65c | 43.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Falcons | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Rune Eaters | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Team Falcons | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…cb74backed Team Falcons | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Rune Eaters (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.