Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb16f47291ca2b2ac8ac4fe9c4c57ec97bbcc534823c3dcf914e04cd85c0efe7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a4…14abbacked Yes | 0c | 3,324$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 1c | 2,355$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 11c | 1,097$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 13c | 374.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 21c | 288.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 258.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 227.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 212.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 70c | 196.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 51c | 193.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 19c | 181.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 54c | 176.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 56c | 175.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 27c | 142.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 132.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 21c | 128.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10dc…a9dcbacked Yes | 36c | 127.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…f27ebacked Yes | 48c | 99.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…6441backed No | 53c | 97.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 88.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 85.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 20c | 80.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed No | 41c | 75.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 17c | 75.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…2748backed Yes | 56c | 75.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 70c | 73.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 45c | 72.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 72.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 44c | 70.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 25c | 69.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…00a8backed Yes | 46c | 68.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…0da8backed Yes | 56c | 67.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 51c | 67.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 49c | 65.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 48c | 63.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3f0ebacked No | 49c | 56.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 22c | 56.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 36c | 54.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 52.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 38c | 51.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 44.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 66c | 43.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed Yes | 59c | 42.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…f500backed Yes | 66c | 41.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 36c | 40.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 36c | 40.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fea…be32backed Yes | 48c | 39.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…e5c9backed Yes | 50c | 39.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 58c | 37.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 46c | 37.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 54c | 37.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed No | 55c | 35.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…b524backed No | 51c | 35.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 29.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 50c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 45c | 28.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 42c | 26.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 48c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed No | 52c | 23.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…a2acbacked No | 62c | 23.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed Yes | 52c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 46c | 22.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked Yes | 66c | 21.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 63c | 21.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…a640backed Yes | 70c | 20.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 61c | 18.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.