Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1cb0d12cb599f3ce819c4dafd00933cfbec615e8ad4d475305e2ba7f19c360c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc560…adbabacked No | 6c | 1,836$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 29c | 760.13$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.84 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…c7dbbacked Yes | 49c | 618.87$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 35c | 493.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.96 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 31c | 302.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.84 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 263.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 34c | 244$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.22 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 233.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.95 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 19c | 223.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.7 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 16c | 209$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.92 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 207.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 198.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.95 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 190.19$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 47c | 184.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 16c | 175.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ce…48eebacked No | 75c | 140.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 64c | 138.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 14c | 137.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 30c | 135.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 20c | 127.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 127.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 13c | 124.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 10c | 112.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…a1c7backed No | 14c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 80c | 98.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…1e83backed Yes | 45c | 95.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +90%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 31c | 90.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 75c | 89.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 18c | 84.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 24c | 83.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4b…4fc5backed Yes | 18c | 75.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 73.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 78c | 69.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 48c | 65.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 64.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 80c | 61.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 24c | 61.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 27c | 58.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…08b7backed No | 24c | 58.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 29c | 57.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 36c | 57.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 24c | 52.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 32c | 50.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked Yes | 24c | 49.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 48.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 21c | 47.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 32c | 45.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 26c | 43.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 43.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…2748backed Yes | 50c | 39.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…3ebebacked Yes | 67c | 39.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 79c | 37.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 31c | 32.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 31.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 50c | 27.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…e6d9backed No | 66c | 24.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 80c | 23.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6e89backed No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 74c | 15.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 67c | 15.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.