TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x340f…a21bbacked Yes1c2,947$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes2c1,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No77c766.3$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.6542857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c743.29$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.644,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes15c691.05$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.894946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes18c470.82$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3455336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes23c405.91$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7833929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes12c299.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3656921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb388…1496backed Yes10c279.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes11c255.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3530832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes16c220.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2847423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes25c216.72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.861,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes12c208.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2432818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes8c205.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54934.7%17 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c202.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.95,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b26…f009backed Yes30c198.46$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.472147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c197.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.457,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4d41…8233backed No72c196.16$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes24c194.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.093351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x813c…1cd1backed Yes27c171.42$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.361353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes21c166.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0811637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes13c154.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.323060%18 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes32c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.65453.7%29 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes25c134$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.56734.3%23 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes12c128.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.992,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No76c127.73$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8942469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…f27ebacked Yes38c123.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e22…184abacked Yes48c121.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes18c109.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0547432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97df…889abacked Yes27c102.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.082556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ea…1e83backed No76c101.38$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.79785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick46cpaid+90%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes24c100.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.558422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd777…f2f6backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec6…7566backed Yes30c99.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.932634.6%9 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b98…2748backed Yes11c95.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes22c90.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b42…7cbebacked Yes39c83.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No66c71.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c71.37$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.774,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.840741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c68.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x112a…b221backed No80c67.49$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d78…e218backed Yes28c66.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.563112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No77c63.85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8513067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4760…91cdbacked Yes30c62.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-35.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c57.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.753,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes22c52.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5532132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes28c52.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb412…19abbacked Yes48c50.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.86922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-64.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes25c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54658.7%27 W · 19 L+10.5wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+67%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6fea…be32backed Yes38c49.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes34c45.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5126933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes26c41.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8137532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2066141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee9…014bbacked No66c39.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes32c38.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4729640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No78c38.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4126169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No78c38.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4115477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No75c37.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2924768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No75c37.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5318650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb545…589cbacked No78c34.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.651060%6 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No60c28.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6417570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ed…b814backed No77c28.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.612458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed No77c28.07$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4117156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a09…263dbacked No70c27.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.457057.1%40 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No76c27.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.551,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1bd…b85abacked No73c26.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.293259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4475…b483backed No70c23.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.172951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.464,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…07fcbacked No71c21.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.233100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked No74c20.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.274535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No67c20.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6314135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3b…22aebacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.234457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No65c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No74c19.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b33…b345backed No78c12.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.761747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.