MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1838b89645274bc8af45a24039edf05757ac2f707cbbeaee3efd5937a820cef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 5,256$3,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.57 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 4,684$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 68c | 1,470$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 1,217$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 869.26$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 29c | 781.86$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Under | 61c | 649.1$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 64c | 552.13$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.77 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 36c | 540.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 60c | 458.06$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.54 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 67c | 340.77$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.19 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 66c | 301.3$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 68c | 299.14$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Over | 31c | 293.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 290.47$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.14 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 36c | 200.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 72c | 178.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 140.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 35c | 104.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 45c | 79.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Over | 67c | 76.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 34c | 68.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 66c | 66.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 61.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 65c | 59.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Over | 38c | 53.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 34c | 50.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…a82fbacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 34c | 41.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 39.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 32c | 36.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 47c | 34.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 63c | 32.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 75c | 25.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 66c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…ebdbbacked Under | 66c | 23.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…1c4fbacked Under | 65c | 19.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…77fcbacked Under | 64c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 63c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.