Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1a0cd4cddb64914e7048b71a917a3da35e3e6756c6c661d296ca8ced76c5b8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,899$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 25c | 997.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 516.4$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 54c | 452.85$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.31 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked No | 71c | 424.93$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 335$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 292$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 55c | 248$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 48c | 213.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 199.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 73c | 173.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 172.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 24c | 162.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 55c | 152.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 144.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 125.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 72c | 125$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 112.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 48c | 104.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 94.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 92.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…7fe1backed No | 64c | 84.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 59c | 71.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 39c | 70.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 55c | 70.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…6382backed Yes | 24c | 63.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 59.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 47c | 57.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 57.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 54.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 54.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 44c | 53.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 51.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 50.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 43.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 42.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 41.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…d708backed No | 55c | 39.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 54c | 37.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 36.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 55c | 34.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 46c | 32.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 32.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 28.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 46c | 26.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 25.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 47c | 25.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 24.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 48c | 24.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 52c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 52c | 23.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…208abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 54c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 53c | 19.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.